When Your Signals Actually Predict Something: BULLISH Hits 65% at 36h
We ran 12,000+ option trades through ORIA's validation engine. BULLISH signals hit 65% at 36h with +24% P&L on winners. BEARISH? 39% win rate but +26% when they hit. Time lets the thesis play out.
Most crypto analytics tell you what happened. We wanted to know: did our signals predict what would happen?
So we ran 12,000+ option trades through ORIA's validation engine.
We start simple: every signal gets labeled BULLISH or BEARISH. We tracked whether instruments actually ended up profitable, excluding flat trades.
At the 36-hour horizon, BULLISH signals hit 65% of the time with +24% average P&L on winners.
BEARISH signals? 39% win rate. Below random.
But here's the interesting part: BEARISH winners averaged +26% when they hit. Classic contrarian payoff profile. Fewer wins, bigger magnitude.
The math still favors BULLISH. Expected return: 15.5% vs 10%.
Why?
The market was bullish over this period. ORIA's BULLISH signals captured it. BEARISH signals were correctly identified as fighting the trend.
At shorter horizons, noise dominates. Stretch to 24-36 hours and the divergence becomes clear.
One more thing: at shorter horizons, both signals hover near 50%. Noise dominates. But stretch to 24-36 hours and the divergence becomes clear.
That's how directional signals should behave. Time lets the thesis play out.
This isn't backtesting with hindsight. It's forward validation on live signals.
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